Mana Games

[ChrisM47]

Hey everyone,

Long-time Tennis Elbow player here. I've been lurking on the tournament threads for a while, and I have a question that's been on my mind.

A friend of mine is into machine learning and has been experimenting with a tennis prediction algorithm on the side. Nothing serious, just a hobby project where he pulls match data, engineers features per player (recent form, surface adjusted stats, rolling serve metrics, head-to-head) and trains a small model that spits out a win probability for upcoming matches. We compare his model picks against ours every week during the tour.

The overlap with what Tennis Elbow simulates under the hood is what I find fascinating. You've got the same problem, predicting point-by-point outcomes from a bunch of player attributes. Obviously the game designers have their own ways of modelling it, but I'm curious how close a purely data-driven approach would get.

Has anyone here played around with predictive models outside the game? Or has anyone read about how Tennis Elbow itself handles the probability model under the hood? I'd love pointers either way.

[Jira]

Well we're planning on adding prediction stuff in the future in our website https://tenniselbowhub.live/ in the future with Marco(Ambience). For the time being we're still implementing stuff little by little. Today we added a tournament predictions tab but is for the users to share their prediction in upcoming official tour matches. Maybe later if we introduce some other features we could do that

[manutoo]

ChrisM47,
It seems you're talking about the offline World Tour, but posted in the Online Tour forum.
TE4 doesn't really predict CPU vs CPU match results, it simulates them. In other words, the goal isn't to estimate an outcome from external data, but to generate the match from the game's internal player attributes and match logic.
Also, unlike a pure prediction model, this simulation is part of the World Tour gameplay, so the user can influence it through in-match decisions.